Showing posts with label Sports. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sports. Show all posts

Saturday, December 14, 2019

Franchise or Journeyman

What is a "franchise" Quarterback? You hear the term bandied about usually in reference to newly drafted college stars brimming with potential or established veterans with years of success but in neither case is the idea very well defined.

I propose the following definition.

A franchise Quarterback will have made 64 or more starts for an organization.

The rationale behind this definition is two-fold. First, it is achievable on a rookie deal but only if every single potential start is made. Secondly, it's a rarer benchmark than you might anticipate. Since 1967, every Franchise has had at least one but no team has had more than five.

For this post, I'll go through each Franchise, note their Franchise QBs, their near-misses, a few additional thoughts of interest, and conclude with a word about Journeymen. In alphabetical order by city for no other reason than it seems sensible to me. All stats current as of week 13, 2019.

Arizona Cardinals (aka. St. Louis Cardinals, Phoenix Cardinals)

Franchise QBs
  1. Jim Hart - 179 starts ('67-'81, '83)
  2. Neil Lomax - 101 starts ('81-'88)
  3. Jake Plummer - 82 starts ('97-'02)
Champion QBs - None.

Current QB - Kyler Murray, 13 starts

Near Misses
  1. Carson Palmer - 62 ('13-'17)
  2. Kurt Warner - 57 ('05-'09)
 44 total QBs with at least one start.


Atlanta Falcons

Franchise QBs
  1. Matt Ryan - 186 ('08-now)
  2. Steve Bartowski - 121 ('75-'85)
  3. Chris Chandler - 67 ('97-'01)
  4. Michael Vick - 67 ('01-'06)
  5. Chris Miller - 66 ('87-'93)
Champion QBs - None.

Current QB - Matt Ryan

Near Misses
  1. Bob Berry - 51 ('68-'72)
37 total QBs


Baltimore Ravens (Not Colts)

Franchise QBs
  1. Joe Flacco - 163 ('08-'18)
Champion QBs - Joe Flacco 2013, Trent Dilfer 2001

Current QB - Lamar Jackson, 21 starts

Near Misses
  1. Kyle Boller - 42 ('03-'05, '07)
 20 total QBs


Buffalo Bills

Franchise QBs
  1. Joe Ferguson - 164 ('73-'84)
  2. Jim Kelly - 160 ('86-'96)
Champion QBs - None.

Current QB - Josh Allen, 24 starts

Near Misses
  1. Ryan Fitzpatrick - 63 ('09-'12)
  2. Drew Bledsoe - 48 ('02-'04)
  3. Tyrod Taylor - 44 ('05-'17)
37 total QBs


Carolina Panthers

Franchise QBs
  1. Cam Newton - 124 ('11-now)
  2. Jake Delhomme - 90 ('03-'09)
Champion QBs - None.

Current QB - Kyle Allen, 12 starts (Cam Newton is injured)

Near Misses
  1. Steve Beuerlein - 51 ('96-'00)
 17 total QBs. If you're looking for Kerry Collins, he ended up with 38 and I set the Near Miss boundary to 40.


Chicago Bears

Franchise QBs
  1. Jay Cutler - 102 ('09-'16)
  2. Jim McMahon - 84 ('82-'88)
  3. Jim Harbaugh - 65 ('88-'93)
Champion QBs - Jim McMahon 1986

Current QB - Mitch Trubisky, 38 starts

Near Misses
  1. Bobby Douglass - 52 ('68-'75)
  2. Bob Avellini - 50 ('75-'79, '82, '84)
  3. Erik Kramer - 46 ('94-'98)
49 total QBs


Cincinnati Bengals

Franchise QBs
  1. Ken Anderson - 172 ('71-'85)
  2. Andy Dalton - 130 ('11-'19)
  3. Boomer Esiason - 124 ('84-'92, '97)
  4. Jeff Blake - 66 ('94-'99)
Champion QBs - None.

Current QB - Andy Dalton

Near Misses
  1. Jon Kitna - 46 ('01-'04)
 30 total QBs


Cleveland Browns

Franchise QBs
  1. Brian Sipe - 114 ('74-'83)
  2. Bernie Kosar - 106 ('85-'93)
Champion QBs - None.

Current QB - Baker Mayfield, 26 starts

Near Misses
  1. Tim Couch - 59 ('99-'03)
  2.  Bill Nelson - 51 ('68-'72)
  3. Mike Phipps - 51 ('70-'76)
 50 total QBs (28 since 2000)


Dallas Cowboys

Franchise QBs
  1. Troy Aikman - 165 ('89-'00)
  2. Tony Romo - 127 ('06'-'15)
  3. Roger Staubach - 114 ('69-'71, '73-'79)
  4. Danny White - 92 ('78, '80-'87)
Champion QBs - Roger Staubauch 1972 & 1978, Troy Aikman 1993, 1994, & 1996

Current QB - Dak Prescott, 61 starts

Near Misses
  1. Dak Prescott ('16-'19)
  2. Craig Morton - 48 ('67-'72)
36 total QBs


Denver Broncos

Franchise QBs
  1. John Elway - 231 ('83-'98)
  2. Craig Morton - 64 ('77-'82)
Champion QBs - John Elway 1998 & 1999, Peyton Manning 2016

Current QB - Drew Lock, 2 starts (Joe Flacco is injured)

Near Misses
  1. Peyton Manning - 57 ('12-'15)
  2. Jake Plummer - 54 ('03-'06)
  3. Brian Griese - 51 ('99-'02)
  4. Charley Johnson - 41 ('72-'75)
 42 total QBs, including Tim Tebow (14 starts)


Detroit Lions

Franchise QBs
  1. Matthew Stafford -149 ('09-now)
  2. Greg Landry - 95 ('68-'78)
Champion QBs - None.

Current QB - David Blough, 2 starts (Matthew Stafford is injured)

Near Misses
  1. Eric Hipple - 61 ('80-'86, '89)
  2. Scott Mitchell - 57 ('94-'98)
  3. Joey Harrington - 55 ('02-'05)
  4. Gary Danielson - 54 ('77-'78, '80-'82, '84)
  5. Rodney Peete - 47 ('89-'93)
  6. Charlie Batch - 46 ('98-'01)
36 total QBs


Green Bay Packers

Franchise QBs
  1. Brett Favre - 253 ('92-'07)
  2. Aaron Rodgers - 171 ('08-now)
  3. Lynn Dickey - 101 ('76-'77, '79-'85)
Champion QBs - Bart Starr 1967 & 1968, Brett Favre 1997, Aaron Rodgers 2011

Current QB - Aaron Rodgers

Near Misses
  1. Dan Majkowski - 49 ('87-'91)
  2. Bart Starr - 46 ('67-'71) easily eclipses 64 if pre-1967 starts are considered
26 total QBs


Houston Texans

 Franchise QBs
  1. Matt Schaub - 88 ('07-'13)
  2. David Carr - 75 ('02-'06)
Champion QBs - None.

Current QB - DeShaun Watson, 35 starts

Near Misses - None.

15 total QBs, franchise started in 2002.


Indianapolis Colts (aka Baltimore Colts)

Franchise QBs
  1. Peyton Manning - 208 ('98-'10)
  2. Bert Jones - 92 ('73-'81)
  3. Andrew Luck - 86 ('12-'16, '18)
Champion QBs - Johnny Unitas 1971, Peyton Manning 2007

Current QB - Jacoby Brissett, 27 starts

Near Misses
  1. Johnny Unitas - 49 ('67, '69-'72) had pre-1967 starts
  2. Jeff George - 49 ('94-'97)
  3. Mike Pagel - 47 ('82-'85)
  4. Jack Trudeau - 47 ('86-'90, '92-'93)
  5. Jim Harbaugh - 46 ('94-'97)
 35 total QBs


Jacksonville Jaguars

Franchise QBs
  1. Mark Brunell - 117 ('95-'03)
  2. David Garrard - 76 ('02, '04-'10)
  3. Blake Bortles - 73 ('13-'18)
Champion QBs - None.

Current QB - Gardner Minshew, 9 starts

Near Misses
  1. Byron Leftwich - 44 ('03-'06)
 19 total QBs, franchise started in 2005.


Kansas City Chiefs

Franchise QBs
  1. Len Dawson - 90 ('67-'75) had pre-1967 starts
  2. Trent Green - 88 ('01-'06)
  3. Bill Kenney - 77 ('80-'88)
  4. Alex Smith - 77 ('13-'17)
  5. Mike Livingston - 76 ('69-'79)
Champion QBs - Len Dawson 1967

Current QB - Patrick Mahomes, 28 starts

Near Misses
  1. Elvis Grbac - 47 ('97-'99)
  2. Matt Cassel - 47 ('09-'12)
  3. Steve DeBerg - 41 ('89-'91)
33 total QBs


Los Angeles Chargers (aka San Diego Chargers)

Franchise QBs
  1. Philip Rivers - 221 ('06-now)
  2. Dan Fouts - 171 ('73-'87)
  3. John Hadl - 78 ('67-'72) had pre-1967 starts
  4. Stan Humphries - 68 ('92-'97)
Champion QBs - None.

Current QB - Philip Rivers

Near Misses
  1. Drew Brees - 58 ('02-'05)
 34 total QBs


Los Angeles Rams (aka St. Louis Rams)

Franchise QBs
  1. Jim Everett - 105 ('86-'93)
  2. Marc Bulger - 95 ('02-'09)
  3. Roman Gabriel - 82 ('67-'72) had per-1967 starts
Champion QBs - Kurt Warner 2000

Current QB - Jared Goff, 51 starts

Near Misses
  1. Pat Haden - 55 ('76-'81)
  2. Jared Goff ('16-'19)
  3. Kurt Warner - 50 ('99-'03)
  4. Sam Bradford - 49 ('10-'13)
  5. Vince Ferragamo - 43 ('79, '81-'84)
  6. Tony Banks - 43 ('96-'98)
42 total QBs


Miami Dolphins

Franchise QBs
  1. Dan Marino - 230 ('83-'99)
  2. Bob Griese - 151 ('67-'80) had pre-1967 starts
  3. Ryan Tannehill - 88 ('12-'16, '18)
Champion QBs - Bob Griese 1973 & 1974

Current QB - Ryan Fitzpatrick, 10 starts

Near Misses
  1. Jay Fiedler - 59 ('00-'04)
  2. David Woodley - 40 ('80-'83)
34 total QBs


Minnesota Vikings

Franchise QBs
  1. Tommy Kramer - 110 ('77, '79-'89)
  2. Fran Tarkenton - 93 ('72-'78)
  3. Daunte Culpepper - 80 ('00-'05)
Champion QBs - None.

Current QB - Kirk Cousins, 29 starts

Near Misses
  1. Wade Wilson - 48 ('83-'91)
  2. Brad Johnson - 44 ('96-'97, '05-'06)
37 total QBs


New Orleans Saints

Franchise QBs
  1. Drew Brees - 213 ('06-now)
  2. Archie Manning - 129 ('71-'75, '77-'81)
  3. Aaron Brooks - 82 ('00-'05)
  4. Bobby Herbert - 78 ('86-'89, '91-'92)
Champion QBs - Drew Brees 2010

Current QB - Drew Brees

Near Misses
  1. Jim Everett - 47 ('94-'96)
  2. Billy Kilmer - 40 ('67-'70) had pre-1967 starts
32 total QBs


New England Patriots (aka Boston Patriots)

Franchise QBs
  1. Tom Brady - 280 ('01-now)
  2. Steve Grogan - 135 ('75-'90)
  3. Drew Bledsoe - 123 ('93-'01)
Champion QBs - Tom Brady 2002, 2004, 2005, 2015, 2017, & 2019

Current QB - Tom Brady

Near Misses
  1. Jim Plunkett - 61 ('71-'75)
  2. Tony Eason - 49 ('83-'89)
25 total QBs


New York Giants

Franchise QBs
  1. Eli Manning - 233 ('04-now)
  2. Phil Simms - 160 ('79-'81, '84-'93)
  3. Fran Tarkenton - 69 ('67-'71) had pre-1967 starts for Minnesota as well
  4. Kerry Collins - 68 ('99-'03)
Champion QBs - Jeff Hostetler 1987, Phil Simms 1991, Eli Manning 2008 & 2012

Current QB - Eli Manning (Daniel Jones is injured)

Near Misses
  1. Dave Brown - 53 ('94-'97)
23 total QBs


New York Jets

Franchise QBs
  1. Ken O'Brien - 106 ('84-'92)
  2. Joe Namath - 103 ('67-'76) had starts pre-1967
  3. Richard Todd - 94 ('76-'83)
Champion QBs - Joe Namath 1970

Current QB - Sam Darnold, 24 starts

Near Misses
  1. Mark Sanchez - 62 ('09-'12) guess "Sanchize" didn't end up being a good nickname
  2. Vinny Testaverde - 61 ('98-'03, '05)
  3. Chad Pennington - 61 ('02-'07)
  4. Boomer Esiason - 42 ('93-'95)
38 total QBs


Oakland Raiders (aka Los Angeles Raiders)

Franchise QBs
  1. Ken Stabler - 96 ('71-'79)
  2. Derek Carr - 91 ('14-now)
  3. Daryle Lamonica - 84 ('67-'73) had pre-1967 starts
  4. Rich Gannon - 77 ('99-'04)
Champion QBs - Ken Stabler 1977, Jim Plunkett 1981 & 1984

Current QB - Derek Carr

Near Misses
  1. Jim Plunkett - 57 ('80-'86)
  2. Jay Schroeder - 57 ('88-'92)
  3. Jeff Hostetler - 55 ('93-'96)
  4. Marc Wilson - 50 ('81, '83-'87)
37 total QBs


Philadelphia Eagles

Franchise QBs
  1. Donovan McNabb - 142 ('99-'09)
  2. Ron Jaworski - 137 ('77-'86)
  3. Randall Cunningham - 107 ('85-'95)
Champion QBs - Nick Foles 2018

Current QB - Carson Wentz, 53 starts

Near Misses
  1. Carson Wentz ('16-'19)
  2. Norm Snead - 51 ('67-'70) had pre-1967 starts
  3. Michael Vick - 40 ('10-'13)
36 total QBs


Pittsburgh Steelers

Franchise QBs
  1. Ben Roethlisberger - 216 ('05-now)
  2. Terry Bradshaw - 158 ('70-'83)
  3. Kordell Stewart - 76 ('97-'02)
  4. Bubby Brister - 67 ('86, '88-'92)
Champion QBs - Terry Bradshaw 1975, 1976, 1979, & 1980, Ben Roethlisberger 2006 & 2009

Current QB - Devlin Hodges, 2 starts (Ben Roethlisberger is injured)

Near Misses
  1. Neil O'Donnell - 61 ('91-'95)
  2. Mark Malone - 45 ('81, '84-'87)
28 total QBs


Seattle Seahawks

Franchise QBs
  1. Matt Hasselbeck - 131 ('01-'10)
  2. Russell Wilson - 125 ('12-now)
  3. Dave Krieg - 119 ('81-'91)
  4. Jim Zorn - 100 ('76-'83) pre-1967 starts
Champion QBs - Russell Wilson 2014

Current QB - Russell Wilson

Near Misses
  1. Rick Mirer - 51 ('93-'96)
22 total QBs


San Francisco 49ers

Franchise QBs
  1. Joe Montana - 129 ('79-'90)
  2. Steve Young - 124 ('87-'99)
  3. Alex Smith - 75 ('05-'07, '09-'12)
  4. John Brodie - 73 ('67-'73) had pre-1967 starts
  5. Jeff Garcia - 71 ('99-'03)
Champion QBs - Joe Montana 1982, 1985, 1989 & 1990, Steve Young 1995

Current QB - Jimmy Garoppolo, 21 starts

Near Misses
  1. Colin Kaepernick - 58 ('12-'16)
37 total QBs


Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Franchise QBs
  1. Trent Dilfer - 76 ('94-'99)
  2. Vinny Testaverde - 72 ('87-'92)
  3. Doug Williams - 67 ('78-'82)
  4. Jameis Winston - 67 ('15-now)
Champion QBs - Brad Johnson, 2003

Current QB - Jameis Winston

Near Misses
  1. Josh Freeman - 59 ('09-'13)
  2. Brad Johnson - 49 ('01-'04)
 37 total QBs, franchise started in 1976


Tennessee Titans (aka Houston Oilers, Tennessee Oilers)

Franchise QBs
  1. Warren Moon - 139 ('84-'93)
  2. Steve McNair - 131 ('95-'05)
  3. Dan Pastorini - 107 ('71-'79)
Champion QBs - None.

Current QB - Ryan Tannehill, 7 starts

Near Misses
  1. Marcus Mariota - 61 ('15-now)
  2. Vince Young - 47 ('06-'10)
 38 total QBs


Washington Redskins

Franchise QBs
  1. Joe Theismann - 124 ('76-'85)
  2. Billy Kilmer - 74 ('71'-78)
  3. Sonny Jurgenson - 67 ('67-'74) had pre-1967 starts
  4. Mark Rypien - 66 ('89-'93)
Champion QBs - Joe Theismann 1983, Doug Williams 1988, Mark Rypien 1992

Current QB Dwayne Haskins, 7 starts (Alex Smith is injured)

Near Misses
  1. Kirk Cousins - 58 ('12-'17)
  2. Jason Campbell - 52 ('06-'09)
  3. Gus Frerotte - 46 ('94-'98)
40 total QBs

Only 2 men have managed to be Franchise QBs for two different teams. Fran Tarkenton with the Vikings and the Eagles, and Alex Smith with the 49ers and Chiefs.

So there you go, each Franchise and their "Franchise" QBs. How about the other side of the spectrum? Journeyman is the common nomenclature used for the gun for hire types who bounce from team to team but always manage to get work. Since 1967, 18 QBs have started a game for 5 or more different teams. Bold indicates they achieved Franchise status.

The 5's

Wade Wilson - Vikings, Falcons, Saints, Cowboys, Raiders
Jim McMahon - Bears, Chargers, Eagles, Vikings, Cardinals,
David Krieg - Seahawks, Chiefs, Lions, Cardinals, Bears,
Trent Dilfer - Buccaneers, Ravens, Seahawks, Browns, 49ers
Jeff George - Colts, Falcons, Raiders, Vikings, Redskins
Jeff Garcia - 49ers, Browns, Lions, Eagles, Buccaneers
Kyle Orton -  Bears, Broncos, Chiefs, Cowboys, Bills
Matt Cassel - Patriots, Chiefs, Vikings, Cowboys, Titans
Case Keenum - Texans, Rams, Vikings, Broncos, Redskins

The 6's

Steve DeBerg - 49ers, Broncos, Buccaneers, Chiefs, Dolphins, Falcons
Vinny Testaverde - Buccaneers, Browns, Ravens, Jets, Cowboys, Panthers
Steve Beuerlein - Raiders, Cowboys, Cardinals, Jaguars, Panthers, Broncos
Kerry Collins - Panthers, Saints, Giants, Raiders, Titans, Colts
Josh McCown - Cardinals, Raiders, Bears, Buccaneers, Browns, Jets
Brian Hoyer - Cardinals, Browns, Texans, Bears, 49ers, Colts

The 7's

Chris Chandler - Colts, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Rams, Titans, Falcons, Bears
Gus Frerotte -  Redskins, Lions, Broncos, Bengals, Vikings, Dolphins, Rams

The Ultimate Journeyman

Ryan Fitzpatrick -  Rams, Bengals, Bills, Titans, Texans, Jets, Buccaneers, Dolphins

Sunday, February 19, 2017

HOF Chances - The 2017 Retirees



Did this last year, enjoyed it, so I'm doing it again. Last time it all fit in a Facebook post, albeit a long one, but this time I decided to dwell a little longer on each candidate. Here is a list of MLB players that have announced retirement and my projection of their HOF chances.


1B Mark Teixeira - 75% chance

Switch hitting power hitter who also featured a really nice glove at 1B. Tex had a pretty extended peak, hit 40 HRs once, 35+ 3 other times and only <13 once in an injury shortened 2013 over his 14 year career. Finished with 409 bombs and 2 short of 1300 RBIs. He finished 5th in ROY voting for Texas in '03 then got consecutive Silver Sluggers overlapping consecutive Gold Gloves. Then was the keystone of one of the worst trades in Major League history when the Braves sent SS Elvis Andrus, SP Matt Harrison, RPs Neftali Feliz and Beau Jones and C Jarrod Saltalamacchia to Texas for him. Lasted 108 games between '07 and '08 for Atlanta during the proud franchises true nadir. He hit .358 for LA after being flipped from Atlanta in '08 and then got paid. The Yankees gave him an astounding $180 million over 8 years coming out to an AAV of 22.5 million. His 1st 3 seasons in New York were awesome, including the '09 World Series, followed by 5 injury plagued and generally disappointing years. His detractors will point his sub .270 BA, and the glut of amazing talents at his position in the Hall already. I don't think I'd vote for him, simply because he wasn't the best at his position throughout his career, evidenced by only garnering 3 All-Star selections. But I wouldn't complain if he was elected.

1B Prince Fielder - 60%

Son of masher Cecil Fielder. Prince had a much brighter but shorter shine than Teixeira. His glorious peak, 2007-09, he mashed 50-34-46 HRs, drove in 119-102-141, was a All-Star twice, won a Silver Slugger and finished 3rd-20th-4th in MVP voting. Got MVP votes 2 more times, went to a total of 6 All-Star games in his 12 years, and won 2 more Silver Sluggers. Finished with 319 bombs and an impressive .283 BA. A neck injury ended his career at age 32, or he may have reached the 400 and possibly even 500 homer marks. I would vote for him, because of how dominant he was as both a power hitter and hitting for average. He also had one of the greatest showings in the Home Run derby I've ever seen.

C AJ Pierzynski - 18%

Anthony John Pierzynski. You either hated him, or you really hated him. 19 years in the league, including long stretches with Minnesota and the White Sox. World Series champ with Chicago, All-Star twice, and got some MVP votes in '06 when they won the Series. He hit 188 dingers, topping out at 27. Never drove in more that 77 runs, never hit better than .312 with a career .280 BA. But he logged 16,335.1 innings in over 2000 games at Catcher and really was actually a pretty cool guy. I'm afraid his lack of a peak, and even among catchers his counting stats don't quite pull him into the elite level. Quite an impressive career though.

C David Ross - 0%

Mythical being or baseball player? Ross toiled in obscurity until finding an unlikely home as a backup in Atlanta and developed a bit of a cult fan following. After hitting a playoff homer one pitch after being granted a very late timeout, the legend of Grandpa Rossy began to take shape. In 2013 he helped Boston to its 3rd title since the curse and then joined the Cubs. The rest is history.

C/1B JP Arencibia - 0%

Despite showing some legit pop (20 dingers twice, 80 over 6 years), JP was a below average Catcher defensively and finished with a career .212 BA.

DH/1B David Ortiz - 100%

What a career. 20 seasons. 541 homers. 1768 RBIs. 2472 hits. 632(!) doubles. A .552 SLG% which he held over .600 for 4 years straight at one point. After struggling to get ABs as a bad 1B in Minnesota he was released. Boston decided to try him at DH. He proceeded to hit 23 or more HRs for 14 straight seasons including a 54 HR year, 2 more 40+, and 4 more 35+ including HIS LAST THREE. That's right, as 40 year old man, he crushed 38 bombs, 48 doubles (which led the league and is his career high) and reached his 3rd highest RBI total 127 (148, 137). Dude was as close to Ruth as we may ever see again at the plate. He crossed the mythical 1.000 OPS for a season mark 4 times, including HIS LAST YEAR and finished with a breathtaking .931. 10 All-Star games, 5 Top-5 MVP finishes, with 2 other years getting votes, and 7 Silver Sluggers. More importantly to Red Sox fans, he led 3 World Series teams including the Bambino breaking 2004 team, won the '04 ALCS MVP, '13 WS MVP and, as Yankees fans can attest, seemed to always get that big hit. If you don't think DHs belong in the Hall, and you just read that list of accomplishments and haven't changed your mind, trade in your credentials - you don't get to vote.

RP Randy Choate - 0%

A LOOGY in every sense. Choate got some big outs for some good teams over his 15 seasons. Managed to log 7 Saves and finished with a 16-14 record.

RP Javier Lopez - 0%

While Choate was killing lefties in St Louis and Arizona. Lopez was Bochy's favorite lefty during the Giants recent dynastic run.

RP Matt Thornton - 0%

Hard throwing righty. Got some chances to establish himself as a closer with mixed but mostly negative results. Had claim to "best setup man" for better part of two seasons at one point.

SP CJ Wilson - 0%

Straight Edge Racer was an oddball lefty with some strong years pitching for the AL West juggernaut Rangers of consecutive World Series failures and their rival Angels. Wilson was wild and ultimately his lack of command ended his effectiveness. I believe he holds the record for most walks in a playoff game.

SP Josh Johnson - 0%

Johnson is yet another story of unrealized potential. Nasty sinkerballer with the Marlins, injuries decimated the latter parts of his career. Part of the massive Marlins-Blue Jays blockbuster which included Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, Emilio Bonifacio, John Buck, Yunel Escobar, Adeiny Hechavarria, Henderson Alvarez, Justin Nicolino, Jake Marisnick, Jeff Mathis, and Anthony DeSclafani.

SS/3B Alex Rodriguez - 99%

I put 99% because Barry Freaking Bonds is not in yet, and A-Rod is the infielder version of Bonds. He is the rare case of a player that can legitimately lay claim to be the greatest ever. He played 22 years for 3 franchises, Seattle, Texas, and the New York Yankees. He set records for all 3 that will stand for long periods of time. He’s got more black ink (league leading stats) than the rest of this list combined (which includes Ortiz). Led the league in HRs 5x, RBIs 2x, Runs 5x, Hits 1x, 2Bs 1x, BA 1x, SLG 4x, OPS 2x, Total Bases 4x. Went to 14 All-Star games, Won 3 MVP awards, got votes 11 other times, including 2 runner ups, 10 Silver Sluggers and 2 Gold Gloves. Won a World Series with the Yankees in 2009, where he absolutely raked through the first two rounds. His counting stats are just as ridiculous. 3115 hits (20th all time), 5.23 MVP shares (percentage of votes during career, which is 10th all time), 696 HRs (4th all time), 2,086 RBIs (3rd all time), he’s also 8th in Runs, 6th in Total Bases, and 6th in XBH. 500+ 2Bs, 300+ SBs, a .930 OPS and 6 staggering seasons over 1.000 OPS. On top of all that, he was a plus defender at short and until his hip broke down transitioned flawlessly to 3B. Of course, he’s also tested positive for steroids and admitted to using while in Texas so there’s that. The Rangers gave him a record 10 yr, $252 million deal. Then he was traded to New York, received $36 million in deferred money, and signed another record 10 yr, $275 million deal. According to SI he will have made $317+ million from New York alone, with a mind numbing $448 million over the course of his career. The discussion is not whether or not ARod is a HOFer, it is simply whether or not he’s better than Honus Wagner. I think he is, but its closer than you might think.

OF/1B Nick Swisher - .005%

He’ll probably be in the West Virginia State High School Association Hall of Fame. Swish sported the well-earned “Most Punchable Face in the League” nickname due to his unapologetic Bro-ness. Despite that, I have to say he was a pretty awesome guy and a dang good ballplayer. 




Friday, April 18, 2014

Lineup Synergy and the Record Industry

Haven't even considered posting here in quite awhile. A quick update on me and mine: We are happily residing in Chesapeake, Virginia and are enjoying the southern life as much as we expected to. In the words of the immortal Gen. George Pickett (at least in a movie) "Up, men! Up! And to your posts! And let no man forget today that you are from old Virginia!"

To the point of the post. I had a conversation with my wife which consisted of me saying several things she found unintelligible and me feeling smart, so I figured I should post about it. First, a short baseball discussion. The conventional wisdom of the sport has taught that in order to have an effective offensive attack, the players should bat in a particular order. This has been encouraged both in the professional teaching ranks and in the amateur and media camps. At another time and place I may address whether convention is truly wise, however, to give a summary of the concept see this chart-ish thing.

1 - leadoff, high OB%, low K rate, speed
2 - #2 hitter, lower K rate, high contact rate, ability to move runners over
3 - #3 hitter, "best hitter", highest AVG, some power
4 - cleanup, power hitter, usually ends with most RBIs
5 - another power hitter, usually a 3 outcome hitter (K, BB, HR)
6 - a little bit better than 7 but not good
7 - worst hitter in NL lineups, not quite worst but not as good as 6 in AL lineups
8 - set up man for P spot in NL lineups, high contact rate, high OB%, worst hitter in AL lineups
9 - pitcher in NL lineups, 2nd leadoff hitter in AL lineups

Just for fun, here's my greatest lineup possible from the history of baseball.

1 - Joe Morgan 2B
2 - Willie Mays CF
3 - Babe Ruth RF
4 - Barry Bonds DH
5 - Ted Williams LF
6 - Lou Gehrig 1B
7 - Alex Rodriguez 3B
8 - Honus Wagner SS
9 - Mike Piazza C

I go with ARod despite his success at primarily SS because the divide between himself and Honus is so small and the chasm between them and the other SS and conventional 3B is so large. Deal with it. The 3B otherwise would be Chipper Jones. I also must mention the primary PH is Hank Aaron, PR is Rickey Henderson and starting pitcher is Greg Maddux...and closer is Mariano Rivera.

Ok, ok - so enough of the baseball for a minute. What does this have to do with the Record Industry?


I believe I can prove that the same lineup synergy baseball has been employing for 115 years is being used to craft song lineups on a Record. I will endeavor to do so with a few of my favorite cuts.

Lets take award winning AFI album "Decemberunderground"

It plays out as such:

1 - Prelude 12/21 (leadoff elements of a prelude are somewhat self-explanatory)
2 - Kill Caustic (good, not great, gives a solid feel for the album)
3 - Miss Murder (easily best song of album, maybe best of their career, strong at #3)
4 - Summer Shudder (again strong, not as catchy or hyped as MM but still very good)
5 - The Interview (another hit, didn't hit the radio but probably deserved it)
6 - Love Like Winter (probably the 2nd best song but now hitting on 4 strong tracks in a row)
7 - Affliction (not bad, but definitely a little regression into the weaker part of the album)
8 - The Missing Frame (probably the weakest or 2nd weakest track, nicely buried at #8)
9 - Kiss and Control (a bit of a surprise here as this and the next one are catchy but not 3-4-5 good)
10 - The Killing Lights
11 - 37mm (my least favorite on the album, right where it belongs 2nd to last)\
12 - Endlessly, She Said (finishing strong, a common occurrence)

Don't believe me yet? Now look at Blink 182's self title album:

1 - Feeling This (strong open, sets tone, not best song but good portrait of the band)
2 - Obvious (still good, but better is coming, staying with continuity to allow later diversity to be more effective)
3 - I Miss You (epic, top charter, ear worm of the ages)
4 - Violence (not the strongest cleanup tune in the iPod, but not bad at all, showing some of that diversity)
5 - Stockholm Syndrome (total trip, great tune)
6 - Down (another strong one, if you liked Violence, again at 4 hits in a row)
7 - The Fallen Interlude (bit of a break here, intentionally flips the lineup in a way)
8 - Go (Could leadoff, good tone setter, showing some of the diversity)
9 - Asthenia (good tune, not on anybody's "best of" lists though)
10 - Always (2nd best song at 3 spot for 2nd lineup, go ahead call in contrived but I see it!)
11 - Easy Target (starting to fade a bit with the finish of the album)
12 - All Of This (not bad, but not as good)
13 - Here's Your Letter (worst tune, again right where it belongs)
14 - I'm Lost Without You (weird, but strangely interesting and as a closer, but a bad place to experiment)

2 for 2 if you're scoring at home. I'll just highlight a few more for evidence.

#'s 2-3-4-5 for Breaking Benjamin's "Phobia"
Diary of Jane - career changer
Breath - radio hit
You - another strong tune
Evil Angel - 2nd best on album
#'s 10-11-12
Unknown Soldier - not bad...kinda meh
Had Enough - definitely weak
How Its Gonna End - bit of an uptick because the album finishes with a bookend "Outro"

#'s 1-2-3 for Cavo's "Bright Nights * Dark Days"
Champagne - broke them on a scene
Crash - best song of their short careers
Let It Go - only other significantly good song on the album

Every Chevelle album:

"Wonder What's Next"
#3 Send the Pain Below - radio hit, 2nd best song of career
"This Kind of Thinking (Could Do Us In)"
#3 Vitamin R - radio hit
"Vena Sera"
#3 Saferwaters - extremely underrated hit
"Sci-Fi Crimes"
#3 Shameful Metaphors - most singable rock song I've ever heard
"Hats Off to the Bull"
#3 Ruse - great tune, only time best or radio hit song wasn't #3 thus far, and its at #4 with The Meddler
"La Gargola"
#3 Jawbreaker - haven't gotten my hands on this album to analyze, but this tune is definitely sick

I could go on and on. Green Day uses this formula, as do Yellowcard, 30 Seconds to Mars, David Crowder Band, Enya, Eve 6, Flyleaf, Il Divo, Incubus and many many more.

Some artists have slight variations, with strongest tunes at 1, 5, 9, 13 (HIM) or numerically strongest to weakest starting at 1 (Andrea Bocelli).

So, next time you crack open a new album, see how it synergizes. You may find you enjoy how songs relate to each other. As always, comments welcome.

Thursday, August 29, 2013

The Short Reliever Solution

Sorry non-sports people, today I write about a Baseball idea. I have kicked this around with several people and decided its time to write it out.

Currently a 25 man roster has either 12 or 13 pitchers on it. Five of them are usually "starters", that is they begin the games and are supposed to be trying to finish them. Six or Seven of them are "relievers" they enter the game after the "starters" either due to matchups, injury, performance or fatigue. The last guy is the "closer" he is usually tasked with finishing games which are within a run or two of being tied. Usually he enters for a "save chance" which is either the last 3 innings of the game, the last out of a game which is within 4 runs or the final outs as long as the he entered when the game was within 4 and faces the potential tying run and prevents the tie from occurring ending the game. These days, the "relievers" are broken into two groups as well. "Specialists" and "long relievers." The specialists enter the game for one or two batters which they have a % advantage against. Such as a lefty with a good changeup against power hitting lefties. The long relievers are available for situations when a starter gets hurt or a game goes into extra innings and the team needs one guy to go 3 or more innings. The specialization has done several things for baseball. It has allowed for more turnover on rosters, as starters that can't sustain success and have scores of available talent either in the majors as relievers or in the minors that can replace them or in cases where the bullpen (the relief pitchers) is used as a training ground for young potential starters. It has only been this way for a little while. The great relievers of yesteryear typical threw close to 200 innings in their pursuit of saves and often were referred to as "relief aces" because they were the best pitchers on the team. Guys like Hoyt Wilhelm, Rollie Fingers and Goose Gossage were workhorse arms that would've started for any team today. Early on, complete games and shutouts happened constantly. Cy Young had a season in which he had 1 more walks allowed than shutouts. Read that a couple times, and then you will never wonder why they named the award after him.

I purpose a new change. Not returning to the old model, but forging a new one. Short Relievers. They exist, but they have the least important position on the roster (if we're counting by dollars spent). This change would need to start from the beginning, from the ground up. The organization would start by focusing their pitching scouting on "six out" arms. Guys that have ++ stuff despite possible troubles with stamina and control. Pitchers like Fernando Rodney, Johnny Venters, David Robertson, Mark Melancon, Luke Gregerson, Tyler Clippard etc, are examples of the guys that fit the system. They would hold 10 pitchers at each level, and in a perfect world use 4 each game. One of them would be tasked with 9 outs while the other 3 have 6. Right/Left matchups, Wins/Losses, Saves/Holds would all be unnecessary and outdated means of assessment. Bases Allowed versus Outs would be the key stat. Instead of focusing on pitch counts and getting through the 5th inning, the pitcher would be only focused on getting his 3 or 6 or 9 outs.

Right now they try to keep a pitcher from having to pitch more than 100-140 pitches every 5 days. A comfortable inning is usually around 20 pitches, an uncomfortable inning is closer to 30. That being said, a guy can usually pitch in 3 or 4 games in a row if called upon. That way 10 pitchers would be plenty, especially if an arbitrary pitch count, say 70, was placed on the relievers. That way you have the 4 guys for game 1, 4 guys for game 2 and 2 guys for emergencies. Not only could a pitcher throw in back to back games, but since he typically would only throw 45-50 pitches he would be available again after just a 2 or 3 game break.

Financially, if the rest of the league was slow on the upkeep, the pitching budget for a the Short Reliever System would be comfortably below the league average and allow for more spending on the offense. Also, the arbitration hearings would be based on commonly accepted achievements, again giving the organization an advantage. In the long run, however, if the system were to work, all pitchers would be paid the same, and most likely net salaries would go up.

The biggest problem is how the players would feel. Awards like the Cy Young and Reliever of the Year are usually given out based on stats. I already mentioned the pay would be lower for longer and of course deciding who is the "Ace" and "Closer" would be moot points. As far as team construction, this seems like a plus, but for the players themselves it could get tough.

Fire away.




Braves have won 23 of their last 30 and still have the best record in Baseball. The fact literally NO ONE is picking them to win the World Series is ridiculous. I admit, even as a ravenous Braves fan, I am very afraid of the Cardinals, Reds, Rays, Tigers and A's...Not so much of the Dodgers, Pirates, Red Sox and Rangers.

Wednesday, July 31, 2013

NFL Preview 2013

Before I highlight each team's changes and give my predictions for the coming season, let me be more serious. Two people I graduated college with, one of whom was in a college choir with me and the other I participated in several other extra curricular activities with were killed in an automobile accident in which another person died and several more were hurt. They are now glorified. I am confident they are in Heaven. Bear with me, this may sound unfortunate, but all the things that bugged me about them are gone. They are perfect. I pray God gives abundant Grace to their families and their close friends. I pray they too see that God has not given them death but instead Life everlasting. I pray their son grows up to know the same God his parents knew. I pray their deaths inspire worship and service from those around them. I praise God for their lives and their desire to serve Him. I praise God for plucking them from the flames and choosing them for His own. I praise God we can be so positive in light of something so horrible. And finally I hope that God's light will shine through my life and clearly as it shined through theirs.

                                                                            ------
I am going to focus on offense, partly because it's what I know and partly because my focus in fantasy football.

Injured
New Acquisition
Rookie

AFC West

Denver Broncos
Key Losses: DE Elvis Dumervil, CB Tracy Porter
Key Additions: CB Rogers-Cromartie, WR Wes Welker

Offense:
QB Peyton Manning
RB Ronnie Hilliman, Montee Ball, Knowshon Moreno
WR Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Eric Decker, Trindon Holliday, Andre Caldwell
TE Joel Dreessen, Jacob Tamme
KR Trindon Holliday
K Matt Prater
P Britton Colquitt

Analysis:
Watch out league. If Manning is healthier, as everyone keeps saying, this is going to be one of the best teams in football again. Everyone is excited to see what the Manning-Welker combo is capable of, and honestly all I have to do is remember how effective Manning's old slot buddy Brandon Stokley was and how much better Welker is than Stokley. I think 130 catches is within reach. The West is not particularly strong so I see them finishing first fairly easily. 

Prediction: 11-5, lose in Round 2 of playoffs

Kansas City Chiefs
Key Losses: DE Glenn Dorsey, RB Peyton Hillis
Key Additions: QB Alex Smith, TE Anthony Fasano, WR Donnie Avery

Offense:
QB Alex Smith
RB Jamaal Charles
WR Dwayne Bowe, Jon Baldwin, Dexter McCluster, Donnie Avery
TE Tony Moeaki, Anthony Fasano 
KR Dexter McCluster
K Ryan Succop
P Dustin Colquitt

Analysis: All the eggs are in Alex Smith's basket. I don't see it happening, too much of the offensive load will be on Charles again, despite his awesomeness, the Chiefs will wallow in mediocrity and have no good options behind Smith when the fan base grows tired of wobbly throws and 15 pass attempt games. 

Prediction: 8-8, Andy Reid immediately on hot seat for not benching Alex Smith halfway through season, but for who? Chase Daniel?

San Diego Chargers
Key Losses: LB Shaun Phillips
Key Additions: DE Dwight Freeney, RB Danny Woodhead

Offense:
QB Philip Rivers
RB Ryan Matthews, Danny Woodhead, Ronnie Brown
WR Malcolm Floyd, Danario Alexander, Vincent Brown, Eddie Royal
TE Antonio Gates
KR Eddie Royal
K Nick Novak
P Mike Scifres

Analysis: New coach, but same old team. Will put up numbers but make key mistakes and lose key ballgames. If Gates stays healthy, Woodhead provides the change-of-pace they missed when Sproles left and Danario Alexander has another big year, maybe, just maybe, they get to the playoffs

Prediction: 10-6, Miss out on the Wild Card barely, loss to Cincinnati and the Ghost of Norv haunts Rivers and McCoy

Oakland Raiders 
Key Losses: TE Brandon Myers, RB Mike Goodson, DT Richard Seymour
Key Additions: CB Tracy Porter, CB Charles Woodson, WR Josh Cribbs

Offense:
QB Matt Flynn, Terrelle Pryor, Tyler Wilson
RB Darren McFadden, Rashad Jennings
WR Denarius Moore, Jacoby Ford, Rod Streater, Javon Criner, Josh Cribbs
TE Richard Gordon
KR Josh Cribbs
K Sebastian Janikowski
P Chris Kluwe

Analysis: They're gonna be bad, real real bad. McFadden can't stay healthy without a passing game to take the pressure off. He's a top-level talent and it would be nice to see him in real offense. I think Flynn will win the job out of camp, be average and either carry the Raiders to a surprising 7-9 or give way to Pryor and a full sale collapse will ensue. Lots needs to change. 

Prediction: 5-11, possible spoilers late in season playing KC, San Diego and Denver last 3 weeks consecutively

AFC South

Houston Texans
Key Losses: FB/TE James Casey
Key Additions: S Ed Reed

Offense:
QB Matt Schaub 
RB Arian Foster, Ben Tate
WR Andre Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, DeVier Posey, Lestan Jean, Keshawn Martin
TE Owen Daniels, Garrett Graham
KR Keshawn Martin
K Randy Bulloch
P Shane Lechler

Analysis: Should be very tough. Love the addition of Clemson Tiger DeAndre Hopkins, should add a freakish weapon opposite Andre Johnson's unfaltering consistency. Foster will again be top 5 in value in the league and Schaub should bounce back from a season which he was uncharacteristically inconsistent, I think he was hurt. 

Prediction: 11-5, disappoint yet again and lose in the AFC title game.

Indianapolis Colts
Key Losses: DE Dwight Freeney
Key Additions: RB Ahmad Bradshaw, S LaRon Landry, QB Matt Hasselbeck

Offense:
QB Andrew Luck, Matt Hasselbeck
RB Ahmad Bradshaw, Vick Ballard, Donald Brown
WR Reggie Wayne, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Nathan Palmer, TY Hilton
TE Colby Fleener, Dwayne Allen
KR TY Hilton
K Adam Vinatieri
P Pat McAfee

Analysis: Luck's success will no longer be surprising, but it will be interesting to see how the departure of Bruce Arians for Arizona will affect this offense. Bradshaw, if healthy, will be a much needed boost to an otherwise non-existent ground game. Should win some key games, make a bid for a Wild Card again.

Prediction: 10-6, edge out San Diego to make the playoffs and then lose in the WC round for the 2nd year in a row

Jacksonville Jaguars
Key Losses: CB Derek Cox
Key Additions: WR Denard Robinson

Offense:
QB Blaine Gabbert, Chad Henne
RB Maurice Jones-Drew, Justin Forsett
WR Cecil Shorts, Justin Blackmon, Mohammed Massaquoi, Jordan Shipley, Denard Robinson
TE Marcedes Lewis
KR Ace Sanders
K Josh Scobee
P Bryan Anger

Analysis: I'm not sure why they insist on starting Gabbert over Henne. Neither can win 10 games, but at least Henne can throw it down the field. Gabbert's injury is minor and will most likely be "the guy" and if Jones-Drew produces the offense will have enough balance to keep Gabbert from getting ultra-blitzed every play. The receiving core is tantalizing, lots of potential, but Gabbert (or Henne) would need to preform way above expectation to make any of it reality. Silver lining? Bryan Anger could be the most valuable punter in the history of the NFL, fantasy wise.

Prediction: 4-12, maybe its time to draft another QB?

Tennessee Titans
Key Losses: TE Jared Cook 
Key Additions: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, RB Shonn Greene, S George Wilson, TE Delanie Walker

Offense:
QB Jake Locker, Ryan Fitzpatrick
RB Chris Johnson, Shonn Greene
WR Kenny Britt, Nate Washington, Kendall Wright, Justin Hunter
TE Delanie Walker
KR Marc Mariani
K Rob Bironas
P Brett Kern

Analysis: The additions here are not impressive. If Locker takes a big, and I mean really big, step forward, Britt stays healthy and Greene provides a smash mouth goal-line option opposite CJ2K, they might compete. If Locker's play keeps Fitzpatrick in the conversation at QB and Britt spends time on the DL, they gonna be bad.

Prediction: 6-10, Chris Johnson asks out by the end of the year

AFC East

Buffalo Bills
Key Losses: S George Wilson, LB Nick Barnett
Key Additions: QB Kevin Kolb, QB EJ Manuel, 

Offense:
QB Kevin Kolb, EJ Manuel
RB CJ Spiller, Fred Jackson, Tashard Choice
WR Steve Johnson, TJ Graham, Robert Woods
TE Scott Chandler, Lee Smith
KR Leodis McKelvin
K Rian Lindell
P Shawn Powell

Analysis: I feel really bad for CJ Spiller. At least with Kolb he'll get loads of check downs. I don't see how this team moves the ball outside of Spiller and he will miss games, gonna be rough year. 

Prediction: 5-11, neither Kolb or Manuel prove to NFL worthy, fans fondly remember Fitzpatrick

Miami Dolphins
Key Losses: T Jake Long, RB Reggie Bush, TE Anthony Fasano
Key Additions: WR Mike Wallace, TE Dustin Keller, LB Dannelle Ellerbe

Offense:
QB Ryan Tannehill, Matt Moore
RB Lamar Miller, Daniel Thomas
WR Mike Wallace, Brian Hartline, Brandon Gibson
TE Dustin Keller
KR Marcus Thigpen
K Dan Carpenter
P Brandon Fields

Analysis: Looks exciting, Wallace-Hartline-Gibson-Keller should give Tannehill all the options he needs to look good or reveal how bad he really is. I think he'll look good, I'm not as optimistic as some pundits I've read, but they should be infinitely more competitive than the last few years. Much of it hangs on whether or not Lamar Miller can take a man's load at RB, if so, they should bring a strong offensive punch to the less-than-stellar AFC East. Could've been even better if another WR addition, Armon Binns, hadn't blown his ACL and MCL in camp just a few days ago. 

Prediction: 10-6 just miss the WC along with San Diego, Tannehill takes the next step and the Dolphins look primed to be an annual power in the future

New England Patriots
Key Losses: WR Wes Welker, TE Aaron Hernandez
Key Additions: WR Danny Amendola, S Adrian Wilson, RB Leon Washington, RB LeGarrette Blount, WR Michael Jenkins

Offense:
QB Tom Brady, Tim Tebow
RB Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen, Leon Washington, LeGarrette Blount
WR Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson, Michael Jenkins
TE Rob Gronkowksi, Jake Ballard, Michael Hoomanawanui
KR Leon Washington
K Stephen Gostkowksi
P Zoltan Mesko

Analysis: Reloaded, recharged and ready to roll. The new-look Pats still have one old piece, Brady is the key. 5 guys off the street with Brady would win a playoff game. Amendola, Jenkins, Ballard, Washington will all produce above their career norms with Brady at the helm, which is to say, this offense will be beast again. Everybody keeps talking about the losses of Welker and Hernandez, and don't get me wrong, those are big losses. But once again, Belichek and co have quietly assembled an extremely talented group of support cast members which will allow Ultrastar, 1st ballot HOFer, Thomas Q Brady, to shine. PS, they resigned each key defensive free agent and added pro bowler Adrian Wilson, so their defense should be better

Prediction: 12-4, with the mid-season addition of a fresh and a little angry Gronk, another Super Bowl trip for Brady and co is in the cards, probably the last of an unequaled era of domination

New York Jets
Key Losses: S LeRon Landry, RB Shonn Greene, TE Dustin Keller
Key Additions: RB Mike Goodson, QB Geno Smith, RB Chris Ivory

Offense:
QB Mark Sanchez, Geno Smith
RB Chris Ivory, Bilal Powell,  
WR Santonio Holmes, Shaun Hill, Jeremy Kerley, Clyde Gates
TE Jeff Cumberland, Kellen Winslow
KR Joe McKnight
K Nick Folk, Billy Cundiff
P Robert Malone

Analysis: Oh, how I hope Cundiff win the K job. He would be a perfect final piece of what really is a pathetic assembly of players. Sanchez has lost all of the shimmer he had as a rookie, Geno Smith doesn't have any of that shimmer so what does that say for him? Ivory is a solid back but got 3rd in the rotation carries for New Orleans last year, not exactly a power house running team. The defense and receiving core are solid, but wins will be ugly and hard to come by. 

Prediction: 5-11, both Sanchez and Smith flop, Rex is beheaded and his head is paraded around New York on a pole all off-season.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens
Key Losses: S Ed Reed, LB Ryan Kruger, LB Dannelle Ellerbe, LB Ray Lewis, CB Cary Williams, WR Anquan Boldin
Key Additions: LB Daryl Smith, DE Elvis Dumervil, TE  Visanthe Shiancoe

Offense:
QB Joe Flacco
RB Ray Rice, Bernard Pierce
WR Torrey Smith, Jacoby Jones, David Reed, Tandon Doss
TE Ed Dickson, Visanthe Shiancoe
KR Jacoby Jones
K Justin Tucker
P Sam Koch

Analysis: The defense will not be the same. The offense will not be the same. A repeat is virtually out of the question, the loss of Dennis Pitta makes it even less likely. Between Boldin and Pitta you've got nearly 80% of Flacco's Super Bowl production gone. However, Ray Rice is the real deal and Harbough will not field a bad defense despite losing a ridiculous number of last year's tackles. With all the upheaval and seeming downgrade, still the favorites to win the North.

Prediction: 10-6, week 15 against New England the make or break game, they win and they go a round deep in the playoffs, they lose and they possibly miss out altogether

Cleveland Browns
Key Losses: WR Josh Cribbs
Key Additions: LB Paul Kruger, WR Davonn Bess

Offense:
QB Brandon Weeden, Jason Campbell
RB Trent Richardson, Montario Hardesty
WR Josh Gordon, Greg Little, Davonn Bess, Travis Benjamin
TE Jordan Cameron, Kellen Davis
KR Travis Benjamin
K Shayne Graham
P Spencer Lanning

Analysis: Weak, but getting stronger. Still not going to move the ball through the air well but Trent Richardson is legit and barring injury should be top 5 in yardage at the end of the season. I'm not a believer in Weeden at all, but others have proven me wrong so good luck to him. Possibly a distant light at the end of the tunnel in Cleveland, but its still a long way off.

Prediction: 5-11, Richardson and Weeden improve and the faithful try to find some joy in hope

Cincinnati Bengals
Key Losses: WR Mohammad Massaquoi
Key Additions: LB James Harrison, RB Giovanni Bernard

Offense:
QB Andy Dalton, Josh Johnson
RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Giovanni Bernard
WR AJ Green, Mohamed Sanu, Andrew Hawkins, Marvin Jones 
TE Jermaine Gresham
KR Brandon Tate
K Mike Nugent
P Kevin Huber

Analysis: Where were these guys during the offseason? Dalton-BJGE-AJ Green is a nice foundation, but sitting on it doesn't build a championship. Should be competitive but still just not good enough. A healthy Andrew Hawkins potentially a breakout star.

Prediction: 9-7, loss to Minnesota late in the season breaks the camel's back and pundits start calling for changes to be made.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Key Losses: RB Rashard Mendenhall, LB James Harrison
Key Additions: RB Le'Veon Bell

Offense:
QB Ben Roethlisberger, Bruce Gradkowski
RB Le'Veon Bell, Jonathan Dwyer, Isaac Redman
WR Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, Jerricho Cotchery, Plaxico Burress
TE Heath Miller, Matt Spaeth
KR Antonio Brown
K Shaun Suisham
P Drew Butler

Analysis: Injuries aside, the 2013 Steelers should be much better than 2012's version. However, unless Roethlisberger is 100% they could struggle mightily. I think he will be, they wouldn't have put their season on Gradkowski. 

Prediction: 10-6, steal the last WC spot yet lose to their arch nemesis Ravens round 1

AFC Playoffs:

Broncos Bye
Pats Bye

Texans over Colts
Ravens over Steelers

Texans over Broncos
Pats over Ravens

Pats over Texans


NFC East

Dallas Cowboys
Key Losses: ---
Key Additions: RB Joseph Randle

Offense:
QB Tony Romo, Kyle Orton
RB DeMarco Murray, Joseph Randle
WR Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, Terrence Williams, Dwayne Harris
TE Jason Witten
KR Dwayne Harris
K Dan Bailey
P Chis Jones

Analysis: Not sure what they're expecting in Dallas, but if an 8-8 team makes no changes, it should expect to be no better than 8-8. Romo will be his typical infuriating self, becoming unstoppable in the last 2 minutes of blowouts and every 3rd game. Dez Bryant will probably continue the antics, and if he doesn't pick up his game, will be out by the beginning of next year. Hate to see a HOFer like Witten wasted on this circus.

Prediction: 4-12, end of Garrett, possibly end of Romo era in Dallas

New York Giants
Key Losses: RB Ahmad  Bradshaw, TE Martellus Bennett, DE Osi Umenyiora
Key Additions: TE Brandon Myers

Offense:
QB Eli Manning
RB David WIlson, Andre Brown
WR Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, Rueben Randle, Louis Murphy
TE Brandon Myers, Bear Pascoe
KR David Wilson
K Josh Brown
P Steve Weatherford

Analysis: Should be good. Wilson and Brown are both primed to have big seasons, if they avoid putting the ball on the ground Eli will move the ball with ease. My pick to win what will be a tough East.

Prediction: 11-5, last game against Washington will be very meaningful, a loss in the NFC championship game will prevent an all too familiar Super Bowl, and probably prevent Coughlin's retirement

Philadelphia Eagles
Key Losses: CB Nnamdi Asomugha, CB Dominique Rogers-Cromartie
Key Additions: CB Cary Williams, FB/TE James Casey, QB Matt Barkley

Offense:
QB Michael Vick, Nick Foles, Matt Barkley
RB LeSean McCoy, Bryce Brown
WR DeSean Jackson, Arrelious Benn, Jason Avant, Jeremy Maclin
TE Brent Celek
KR Brandon Boykin
K Alex Henery
P Donnie Jones

Analysis: With all the press and excitement around Eagles camp you'd think they signed some huge-name free agent or overhauled half their roster...nope, same group that went 4-12 last year, missing key cog Jeremy Maclin no less. However, maybe wonderboy Chip Kelly will unlock Michael Vick and actually utilize LeSean McCoy to his full potential. If so, this could be a scary good team, but likely they will still be extremely mistake prone and lose interest midway through a mind-numbingly bad season

Prediction: 4-12 again, Vick gone, D Jackson gone, Kelly begins building his own team around next year's first round pick.

Washington Redskins
Key Losses: TE Chris Cooley
Key Additions: CB EJ Biggers

Offense:
QB Robert Grffin III, Kirk Cousins, Rex Grossman
RB Alfred Morris, Evan Royster, Roy Helu
WR Josh Morgan, Pierre Garcon, Santana Moss, Leonard Hanerkson, Donte' Stallworth
TE Fred Davis, Logan Paulsen
KR Niles Paul
K Kai Forbath
P Sav Rocca

Analysis: I ripped on the 8-8 team for not changing, but the 12-4 team? They did it right. If RG3 is healthy, and by week 3 he should be, knowing Shanahan, Griffin will play all 4 quarters of every preseason game, because "he looks fine." In any case, this will be an awesome team to watch and should challenge the Giants and grab a WC.

Prediction: 11-5, that loss to the Giants week 16 will cost them the division but they'll win a playoff game before getting bounced. Major success all around.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals
Key Losses: S Adrian Wilson, QB Kevin Kolb, RB Beanie Wells
Key Additions: RB Rashard Mendenhall, DE John Abraham, QB Carson Palmer

Offense:
QB Carson Palmer, Drew Stanton
RB Rashard Mendenhall, Ryan Williams
WR Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Roberts, Micheal Floyd
TE Jeff King
KR Patrick Patterson
K Jay Feely
P Dave Zastudil

Analysis: Adrian Wilson will be a huge loss, the offense will be better but the defense will be hard pressed to repeat last year's effort, especially against the revamped, extremely dangerous other Western teams. I don't understand why Beanie Wells did't get resigned, the man is a beast (and why he hasn't signed anywhere else yet?) Even with a massive upgrade at QB, a possible upgrade at RB (though I don't buy it) and a big name FA in John Abraham, the Cardinals just don't have what it takes to challenge the big boys in the NFC.

Prediction: 6-10, Bruce Arians will have to preach baby steps to keep key free agents from walking after a difficult season

San Francisco 49ers
Key Losses: S Dashon Goldson, QB Alex Smith, WR Ted Ginn Jr, WR Randy Moss
Key Additions: DE Glenn Dorsey, CB/S Nnamdi Asomugha, WR Anquan Boldin

Offense:
QB Colin Kaepernick, Colt McCoy
RB Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter, LaMicheal James
WR Anquan Boldin, Mario Manningham, AJ Jenkings, Kyle Williams, Michael Crabtree
TE Vernon Davis
KR LaMichael James
K Phil Dawson
P Andy Lee

Analysis: Even with the addition of Super Bowl hero Anquan Boldin, the 49ers will be shallow at WR, the departures of Ted Ginn and Randy Moss and the injury to Michael Crabtree make 2nd year player AJ Jenkins a huge cog in what should be a dynamic offense. I don't think Asomugha can replace Goldson, but that D is still the scariest in the league. Their schedule is absolutely brutal with 7 games against last year's playoff teams and a game in New Orleans. 

Prediction: 10-6, Kaepernick and Jack will them to the playoffs only to be upset in the WC round

St Louis Rams
Key Losses: WR Danny Amendola, RB Steven Jackson, 
Key Additions: T Jake Long, TE Jared Cook, WR Tavon Austin

Offense:
QB Sam Bradford
RB Daryl Richardson, Isaiah Pead
WR Tavon Austin, Chris Givens, Brian Quick, Austin Pettis
TE Jared Cook
KR Chris Givens
K Greg Zuerlein
P Johnny Hekker

Analysis: These poor guys try so hard. They've built a very solid, balanced club, that would compete nicely in the FBS. The Bradford-Tebow-McCoy QB class has really been a bummer. They might win some games because Fisher is a great coach and they have a really tough D line, but more than 5 wins will be virtually unattainable.

Prediction: 4-12, Possibly time to draft another QB

Seattle Seahawks
Key Losses: RB Leon Washington
Key Additions: WR Percy Harvin, DE Cliff Avril, DE Michael Bennett

Offense:
QB Russell Wilson, Brady Quinn
RB Marshawn Lynch, Ryan Turbin
WR Percy Harvin, Sidney Rice, David Bladwin, Golden Tate
TE Zach Miller
KR Golden Tate
K Steven Hauschka
P Jon Ryan

Analysis: This is going to be fun to watch. How did one of the best defenses in the league lose nothing and gain Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett? And one of the most potent offenses lose nothing (Washington was a very small part) and gain Percy Harvin? They got way better, which is scary cuz they were really good. (Added after news of Harvin's surgery broke) Not changing my prediction per se, will still be good, how good they look early will be a harbinger of the dominance Percy will facilitate upon his insertion into the lineup, being predicted to be December.

Prediction: 12-4, Playoff success

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons
Key Losses: RB Michael Turner, DE John Abraham, 
Key Additions: DE Osi Umenyiora, RB Steven Jackson

Offense:
QB Matt Ryan
RB Steven Jackson, Jacquizz Rogers
WR Roddy White, Julio Jones, Harry Douglas
TE Tony Gonzalez
KR Jacquizz Rogers
K Matt Bryant
P Matt Bosher

Analysis: This team should've won a Super Bowl already, something just won't click in for Matty Ice. I don't think Steven Jackson is the answer, he's a beast, they'll be real good, but not good enough, the NFC is too tough and they'll miss the playoffs for the first time in Ryan's career.

Prediction: 8-8, Mike Smith is fired, Gonzalez retires week 10 and the wheels begin to fall off

Carolina Panthers
Key Losses: 
Key Additions: WR Ted Ginn Jr, WR Domenik Hixon

Offense:
QB Cam Newton, Derek Anderson
RB DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Mike Tolbert
WR Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell, Ted Ginn, Domenik Hixon
TE Greg Olsen
KR Ted Ginn
K Graham Gano
P Brad Northman

Analysis: Little or no activity of any value here. Newton is special, if DeAngelo and Stewart get healthy the skill positions on this team rival any in the league. But this should be the last year those names are on the same depth chart. 

Prediction: 4-12, Williams and Stewart are traded, Steve Smith retires

New Orleans Saints
Key Losses: RB Chris Ivory
Key Additions: TE Ben Watson

Offense:
QB Drew Brees, Luke McCown
RB Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram
WR Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Courtney Roby, Joe Morgan
TE Jimmy Graham, Ben Watson
KR Darren Sproles
K Garrett Hartley
P Thomas Morstead

Analysis: This team was weak last year, they added virtually nothing and lost in Ivory a solid back. However, they will be back. Drew Brees is just too good, these guys will compete and cause some serious issues for the Falcons' plans to get back to the playoffs. NFL Coaches are always the reason things go wrong and never the reason they go right, EXCEPT SEAN PAYTON. Not sure why, it just is.

Prediction: 12-4, two 4 game winning streaks and a reinvigorated Brees, the Saints "Breeze" through the regular season just to hit a buzz saw in the first round.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Key Losses: DE Michael Bennett,
Key Additions: RB Peyton Hillis, S Dashon Goldson

Offense:
QB Josh Freeman
RB Doug Martin, Mike James, Peyton Hillis
WR Mike Williams, Vincent Jackson, Kevin Ogeltree, Tiquan Underwood
TE Tom Crabtree, Luke Stocker, Zach Miller
KR Tiquan Underwood
K Lawrence Tynes
P Michael Koenen

Analysis: Interesting team, but Josh Freeman keeps "taking the next step" only to have a streak of multi-interception games to end seasons. Its possible they'll string together something and threaten the Saints, but very unlikely.

Prediction: 9-7, hope will linger and Tampa will hang on to this cast of characters one more year.

NFC North

Chicago Bears
Key Losses: DE Israel Idonije,
Key Additions: TE Martellus Bennett

Offense:
QB Jay Cutler, Josh McCown
RB Matt Forte, Michael Bush
WR Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffrey, Earl Bennett, Eric Weems
TE Martellus Bennett
KR Dustin Hester
K Robbie Gould
P Adam Podlesh

Analysis: Nope, the D is good, really good and Cutler will have a couple games where he looks like he's Dan Freakin Marino, but then most of the time he's really bad. Nothing has changed to increase their chances of winning, so I don't see how they do much better.

Prediction: 7-9, talk of Cutler moving on and Dustin Hester's retirement add intrigue to an otherwise lackluster season for da Bears

Detroit Lions
Key Losses: DE Cliff Avril, DE Lawrence Jackson,
Key Additions: RB Reggie Bush, DE Israel Idonije, K David Akers

Offense:
QB Matt Stafford, Shaun Hill
RB Reggie Bush, Mikel Leshoure, Joique Bell
WR Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson, Mike Thomas, Chaz Schilens
TE Brandon Pettigrew
KR Mike Thomas
K David Akers
P Sam Martin

Analysis: These guys could make some noise, but I highly doubt it. Stafford will inevitably get hurt, the defense will inevitably make mistakes. The Lions will be fun to watch, but I don't see Reggie Bush coming in and changing the culture.

Prediction: 4-12, Schwatz gone, can a new head coach turn things around?

Green Bay Packers
Key Losses: WR Donald Driver, WR Greg Jennings, CB Charles Woodson, TE Tom Crabtree
Key Additions: RB Eddie Lacy, RB Jonathan Franklin

Offense:
QB Aaron Rodgers
RB Eddie Lacy, Jonathan Franklin, DuJuan Harris
WR Jordy Nelson, James Jones, Randall Cobb, Jeremy Ross
TE Jermichael Finley
KR Randall Cobb
K Mason Crosby
P Tim Masthay

Analysis: Obviously the preseason favorites, and any team with Aaron Rodgers and only losing two pieces of one of the best offenses over the past 3 seasons. However, I don't think Lacy is ready, and Jordy Nelson had a really rough year last year. Can James Jones and Randall Cobb be what Jennings/Nelson were the last 2 seasons? No. I don't think so. Rodgers will win games on his own, but not enough, not this year.

Prediction:

Minnesota Vikings
Key Losses: WR Percy Harvin
Key Additions: WR Greg Jennings, DE Lawrence Jackson, QB Matt Cassel

Offense:
QB Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel
RB Adrian Peterson, Toby Gerhart
WR Greg Jennings, Cordarrelle Patterson, Jerome Simpson, Jarius Wright
TE Kyle Rudolph, John Carlson
KR Marcus Sherels
K Blair Walsh
P Jeff Locke

Analysis: HOMER ALERT HOMER ALERT, however, in the NFL anything can happen. Adrian Peterson is the indisputably best RB in the league, and arguably the best player. If Christian Ponder is any better, a 10 win team can win 12. Add in an improved defense and some weapons to make Ponder's improvement more plausible, this isn't as laughable as you probably think. If you're responding with "How can Ponder be better without Harvin?" Remember, the Vikes made their stretch run, including Ponder's best 2 games, without Harvin, and Corderrelle Patterson is probably the closest thing the team could've gotten. True story.

Prediction: 11-5. Peterson runs for 2000 again, Ponder is above-average (I described it as Dalton-level earlier today to someone) and the Vikings pull off a miracle in round one of the playoffs.

NFC Playoffs

Seahawks Bye
Giants Bye

Redskins over Saints
Vikings over 49ers

Seahawks over Vikings
Giants over Redskins

Seahawks over Giants

This leaves the Patriots against the Seahawks. If you know me, you'd expect me to pick Brady but the Seahawks defense is just way way way too good. Add in a fresh Harvin and these Hawks are fo' real.


Seahawks over Patriots 30-20 "...you mad bro?"




So that's a really long one. Just found out this afternoon that I'm on light duty and off for a week, however still planning on posting Sunday's SS lesson tomorrow.

Braves on a 5 game winning streak, have scored 9 or more runs 3 games in a row, stand 10 games up in the NL East, and added a great lefty reliever in Scott Downs. Things are looking very up.