Wednesday, July 31, 2013

NFL Preview 2013

Before I highlight each team's changes and give my predictions for the coming season, let me be more serious. Two people I graduated college with, one of whom was in a college choir with me and the other I participated in several other extra curricular activities with were killed in an automobile accident in which another person died and several more were hurt. They are now glorified. I am confident they are in Heaven. Bear with me, this may sound unfortunate, but all the things that bugged me about them are gone. They are perfect. I pray God gives abundant Grace to their families and their close friends. I pray they too see that God has not given them death but instead Life everlasting. I pray their son grows up to know the same God his parents knew. I pray their deaths inspire worship and service from those around them. I praise God for their lives and their desire to serve Him. I praise God for plucking them from the flames and choosing them for His own. I praise God we can be so positive in light of something so horrible. And finally I hope that God's light will shine through my life and clearly as it shined through theirs.

                                                                            ------
I am going to focus on offense, partly because it's what I know and partly because my focus in fantasy football.

Injured
New Acquisition
Rookie

AFC West

Denver Broncos
Key Losses: DE Elvis Dumervil, CB Tracy Porter
Key Additions: CB Rogers-Cromartie, WR Wes Welker

Offense:
QB Peyton Manning
RB Ronnie Hilliman, Montee Ball, Knowshon Moreno
WR Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Eric Decker, Trindon Holliday, Andre Caldwell
TE Joel Dreessen, Jacob Tamme
KR Trindon Holliday
K Matt Prater
P Britton Colquitt

Analysis:
Watch out league. If Manning is healthier, as everyone keeps saying, this is going to be one of the best teams in football again. Everyone is excited to see what the Manning-Welker combo is capable of, and honestly all I have to do is remember how effective Manning's old slot buddy Brandon Stokley was and how much better Welker is than Stokley. I think 130 catches is within reach. The West is not particularly strong so I see them finishing first fairly easily. 

Prediction: 11-5, lose in Round 2 of playoffs

Kansas City Chiefs
Key Losses: DE Glenn Dorsey, RB Peyton Hillis
Key Additions: QB Alex Smith, TE Anthony Fasano, WR Donnie Avery

Offense:
QB Alex Smith
RB Jamaal Charles
WR Dwayne Bowe, Jon Baldwin, Dexter McCluster, Donnie Avery
TE Tony Moeaki, Anthony Fasano 
KR Dexter McCluster
K Ryan Succop
P Dustin Colquitt

Analysis: All the eggs are in Alex Smith's basket. I don't see it happening, too much of the offensive load will be on Charles again, despite his awesomeness, the Chiefs will wallow in mediocrity and have no good options behind Smith when the fan base grows tired of wobbly throws and 15 pass attempt games. 

Prediction: 8-8, Andy Reid immediately on hot seat for not benching Alex Smith halfway through season, but for who? Chase Daniel?

San Diego Chargers
Key Losses: LB Shaun Phillips
Key Additions: DE Dwight Freeney, RB Danny Woodhead

Offense:
QB Philip Rivers
RB Ryan Matthews, Danny Woodhead, Ronnie Brown
WR Malcolm Floyd, Danario Alexander, Vincent Brown, Eddie Royal
TE Antonio Gates
KR Eddie Royal
K Nick Novak
P Mike Scifres

Analysis: New coach, but same old team. Will put up numbers but make key mistakes and lose key ballgames. If Gates stays healthy, Woodhead provides the change-of-pace they missed when Sproles left and Danario Alexander has another big year, maybe, just maybe, they get to the playoffs

Prediction: 10-6, Miss out on the Wild Card barely, loss to Cincinnati and the Ghost of Norv haunts Rivers and McCoy

Oakland Raiders 
Key Losses: TE Brandon Myers, RB Mike Goodson, DT Richard Seymour
Key Additions: CB Tracy Porter, CB Charles Woodson, WR Josh Cribbs

Offense:
QB Matt Flynn, Terrelle Pryor, Tyler Wilson
RB Darren McFadden, Rashad Jennings
WR Denarius Moore, Jacoby Ford, Rod Streater, Javon Criner, Josh Cribbs
TE Richard Gordon
KR Josh Cribbs
K Sebastian Janikowski
P Chris Kluwe

Analysis: They're gonna be bad, real real bad. McFadden can't stay healthy without a passing game to take the pressure off. He's a top-level talent and it would be nice to see him in real offense. I think Flynn will win the job out of camp, be average and either carry the Raiders to a surprising 7-9 or give way to Pryor and a full sale collapse will ensue. Lots needs to change. 

Prediction: 5-11, possible spoilers late in season playing KC, San Diego and Denver last 3 weeks consecutively

AFC South

Houston Texans
Key Losses: FB/TE James Casey
Key Additions: S Ed Reed

Offense:
QB Matt Schaub 
RB Arian Foster, Ben Tate
WR Andre Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, DeVier Posey, Lestan Jean, Keshawn Martin
TE Owen Daniels, Garrett Graham
KR Keshawn Martin
K Randy Bulloch
P Shane Lechler

Analysis: Should be very tough. Love the addition of Clemson Tiger DeAndre Hopkins, should add a freakish weapon opposite Andre Johnson's unfaltering consistency. Foster will again be top 5 in value in the league and Schaub should bounce back from a season which he was uncharacteristically inconsistent, I think he was hurt. 

Prediction: 11-5, disappoint yet again and lose in the AFC title game.

Indianapolis Colts
Key Losses: DE Dwight Freeney
Key Additions: RB Ahmad Bradshaw, S LaRon Landry, QB Matt Hasselbeck

Offense:
QB Andrew Luck, Matt Hasselbeck
RB Ahmad Bradshaw, Vick Ballard, Donald Brown
WR Reggie Wayne, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Nathan Palmer, TY Hilton
TE Colby Fleener, Dwayne Allen
KR TY Hilton
K Adam Vinatieri
P Pat McAfee

Analysis: Luck's success will no longer be surprising, but it will be interesting to see how the departure of Bruce Arians for Arizona will affect this offense. Bradshaw, if healthy, will be a much needed boost to an otherwise non-existent ground game. Should win some key games, make a bid for a Wild Card again.

Prediction: 10-6, edge out San Diego to make the playoffs and then lose in the WC round for the 2nd year in a row

Jacksonville Jaguars
Key Losses: CB Derek Cox
Key Additions: WR Denard Robinson

Offense:
QB Blaine Gabbert, Chad Henne
RB Maurice Jones-Drew, Justin Forsett
WR Cecil Shorts, Justin Blackmon, Mohammed Massaquoi, Jordan Shipley, Denard Robinson
TE Marcedes Lewis
KR Ace Sanders
K Josh Scobee
P Bryan Anger

Analysis: I'm not sure why they insist on starting Gabbert over Henne. Neither can win 10 games, but at least Henne can throw it down the field. Gabbert's injury is minor and will most likely be "the guy" and if Jones-Drew produces the offense will have enough balance to keep Gabbert from getting ultra-blitzed every play. The receiving core is tantalizing, lots of potential, but Gabbert (or Henne) would need to preform way above expectation to make any of it reality. Silver lining? Bryan Anger could be the most valuable punter in the history of the NFL, fantasy wise.

Prediction: 4-12, maybe its time to draft another QB?

Tennessee Titans
Key Losses: TE Jared Cook 
Key Additions: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, RB Shonn Greene, S George Wilson, TE Delanie Walker

Offense:
QB Jake Locker, Ryan Fitzpatrick
RB Chris Johnson, Shonn Greene
WR Kenny Britt, Nate Washington, Kendall Wright, Justin Hunter
TE Delanie Walker
KR Marc Mariani
K Rob Bironas
P Brett Kern

Analysis: The additions here are not impressive. If Locker takes a big, and I mean really big, step forward, Britt stays healthy and Greene provides a smash mouth goal-line option opposite CJ2K, they might compete. If Locker's play keeps Fitzpatrick in the conversation at QB and Britt spends time on the DL, they gonna be bad.

Prediction: 6-10, Chris Johnson asks out by the end of the year

AFC East

Buffalo Bills
Key Losses: S George Wilson, LB Nick Barnett
Key Additions: QB Kevin Kolb, QB EJ Manuel, 

Offense:
QB Kevin Kolb, EJ Manuel
RB CJ Spiller, Fred Jackson, Tashard Choice
WR Steve Johnson, TJ Graham, Robert Woods
TE Scott Chandler, Lee Smith
KR Leodis McKelvin
K Rian Lindell
P Shawn Powell

Analysis: I feel really bad for CJ Spiller. At least with Kolb he'll get loads of check downs. I don't see how this team moves the ball outside of Spiller and he will miss games, gonna be rough year. 

Prediction: 5-11, neither Kolb or Manuel prove to NFL worthy, fans fondly remember Fitzpatrick

Miami Dolphins
Key Losses: T Jake Long, RB Reggie Bush, TE Anthony Fasano
Key Additions: WR Mike Wallace, TE Dustin Keller, LB Dannelle Ellerbe

Offense:
QB Ryan Tannehill, Matt Moore
RB Lamar Miller, Daniel Thomas
WR Mike Wallace, Brian Hartline, Brandon Gibson
TE Dustin Keller
KR Marcus Thigpen
K Dan Carpenter
P Brandon Fields

Analysis: Looks exciting, Wallace-Hartline-Gibson-Keller should give Tannehill all the options he needs to look good or reveal how bad he really is. I think he'll look good, I'm not as optimistic as some pundits I've read, but they should be infinitely more competitive than the last few years. Much of it hangs on whether or not Lamar Miller can take a man's load at RB, if so, they should bring a strong offensive punch to the less-than-stellar AFC East. Could've been even better if another WR addition, Armon Binns, hadn't blown his ACL and MCL in camp just a few days ago. 

Prediction: 10-6 just miss the WC along with San Diego, Tannehill takes the next step and the Dolphins look primed to be an annual power in the future

New England Patriots
Key Losses: WR Wes Welker, TE Aaron Hernandez
Key Additions: WR Danny Amendola, S Adrian Wilson, RB Leon Washington, RB LeGarrette Blount, WR Michael Jenkins

Offense:
QB Tom Brady, Tim Tebow
RB Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen, Leon Washington, LeGarrette Blount
WR Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson, Michael Jenkins
TE Rob Gronkowksi, Jake Ballard, Michael Hoomanawanui
KR Leon Washington
K Stephen Gostkowksi
P Zoltan Mesko

Analysis: Reloaded, recharged and ready to roll. The new-look Pats still have one old piece, Brady is the key. 5 guys off the street with Brady would win a playoff game. Amendola, Jenkins, Ballard, Washington will all produce above their career norms with Brady at the helm, which is to say, this offense will be beast again. Everybody keeps talking about the losses of Welker and Hernandez, and don't get me wrong, those are big losses. But once again, Belichek and co have quietly assembled an extremely talented group of support cast members which will allow Ultrastar, 1st ballot HOFer, Thomas Q Brady, to shine. PS, they resigned each key defensive free agent and added pro bowler Adrian Wilson, so their defense should be better

Prediction: 12-4, with the mid-season addition of a fresh and a little angry Gronk, another Super Bowl trip for Brady and co is in the cards, probably the last of an unequaled era of domination

New York Jets
Key Losses: S LeRon Landry, RB Shonn Greene, TE Dustin Keller
Key Additions: RB Mike Goodson, QB Geno Smith, RB Chris Ivory

Offense:
QB Mark Sanchez, Geno Smith
RB Chris Ivory, Bilal Powell,  
WR Santonio Holmes, Shaun Hill, Jeremy Kerley, Clyde Gates
TE Jeff Cumberland, Kellen Winslow
KR Joe McKnight
K Nick Folk, Billy Cundiff
P Robert Malone

Analysis: Oh, how I hope Cundiff win the K job. He would be a perfect final piece of what really is a pathetic assembly of players. Sanchez has lost all of the shimmer he had as a rookie, Geno Smith doesn't have any of that shimmer so what does that say for him? Ivory is a solid back but got 3rd in the rotation carries for New Orleans last year, not exactly a power house running team. The defense and receiving core are solid, but wins will be ugly and hard to come by. 

Prediction: 5-11, both Sanchez and Smith flop, Rex is beheaded and his head is paraded around New York on a pole all off-season.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens
Key Losses: S Ed Reed, LB Ryan Kruger, LB Dannelle Ellerbe, LB Ray Lewis, CB Cary Williams, WR Anquan Boldin
Key Additions: LB Daryl Smith, DE Elvis Dumervil, TE  Visanthe Shiancoe

Offense:
QB Joe Flacco
RB Ray Rice, Bernard Pierce
WR Torrey Smith, Jacoby Jones, David Reed, Tandon Doss
TE Ed Dickson, Visanthe Shiancoe
KR Jacoby Jones
K Justin Tucker
P Sam Koch

Analysis: The defense will not be the same. The offense will not be the same. A repeat is virtually out of the question, the loss of Dennis Pitta makes it even less likely. Between Boldin and Pitta you've got nearly 80% of Flacco's Super Bowl production gone. However, Ray Rice is the real deal and Harbough will not field a bad defense despite losing a ridiculous number of last year's tackles. With all the upheaval and seeming downgrade, still the favorites to win the North.

Prediction: 10-6, week 15 against New England the make or break game, they win and they go a round deep in the playoffs, they lose and they possibly miss out altogether

Cleveland Browns
Key Losses: WR Josh Cribbs
Key Additions: LB Paul Kruger, WR Davonn Bess

Offense:
QB Brandon Weeden, Jason Campbell
RB Trent Richardson, Montario Hardesty
WR Josh Gordon, Greg Little, Davonn Bess, Travis Benjamin
TE Jordan Cameron, Kellen Davis
KR Travis Benjamin
K Shayne Graham
P Spencer Lanning

Analysis: Weak, but getting stronger. Still not going to move the ball through the air well but Trent Richardson is legit and barring injury should be top 5 in yardage at the end of the season. I'm not a believer in Weeden at all, but others have proven me wrong so good luck to him. Possibly a distant light at the end of the tunnel in Cleveland, but its still a long way off.

Prediction: 5-11, Richardson and Weeden improve and the faithful try to find some joy in hope

Cincinnati Bengals
Key Losses: WR Mohammad Massaquoi
Key Additions: LB James Harrison, RB Giovanni Bernard

Offense:
QB Andy Dalton, Josh Johnson
RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Giovanni Bernard
WR AJ Green, Mohamed Sanu, Andrew Hawkins, Marvin Jones 
TE Jermaine Gresham
KR Brandon Tate
K Mike Nugent
P Kevin Huber

Analysis: Where were these guys during the offseason? Dalton-BJGE-AJ Green is a nice foundation, but sitting on it doesn't build a championship. Should be competitive but still just not good enough. A healthy Andrew Hawkins potentially a breakout star.

Prediction: 9-7, loss to Minnesota late in the season breaks the camel's back and pundits start calling for changes to be made.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Key Losses: RB Rashard Mendenhall, LB James Harrison
Key Additions: RB Le'Veon Bell

Offense:
QB Ben Roethlisberger, Bruce Gradkowski
RB Le'Veon Bell, Jonathan Dwyer, Isaac Redman
WR Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, Jerricho Cotchery, Plaxico Burress
TE Heath Miller, Matt Spaeth
KR Antonio Brown
K Shaun Suisham
P Drew Butler

Analysis: Injuries aside, the 2013 Steelers should be much better than 2012's version. However, unless Roethlisberger is 100% they could struggle mightily. I think he will be, they wouldn't have put their season on Gradkowski. 

Prediction: 10-6, steal the last WC spot yet lose to their arch nemesis Ravens round 1

AFC Playoffs:

Broncos Bye
Pats Bye

Texans over Colts
Ravens over Steelers

Texans over Broncos
Pats over Ravens

Pats over Texans


NFC East

Dallas Cowboys
Key Losses: ---
Key Additions: RB Joseph Randle

Offense:
QB Tony Romo, Kyle Orton
RB DeMarco Murray, Joseph Randle
WR Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, Terrence Williams, Dwayne Harris
TE Jason Witten
KR Dwayne Harris
K Dan Bailey
P Chis Jones

Analysis: Not sure what they're expecting in Dallas, but if an 8-8 team makes no changes, it should expect to be no better than 8-8. Romo will be his typical infuriating self, becoming unstoppable in the last 2 minutes of blowouts and every 3rd game. Dez Bryant will probably continue the antics, and if he doesn't pick up his game, will be out by the beginning of next year. Hate to see a HOFer like Witten wasted on this circus.

Prediction: 4-12, end of Garrett, possibly end of Romo era in Dallas

New York Giants
Key Losses: RB Ahmad  Bradshaw, TE Martellus Bennett, DE Osi Umenyiora
Key Additions: TE Brandon Myers

Offense:
QB Eli Manning
RB David WIlson, Andre Brown
WR Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, Rueben Randle, Louis Murphy
TE Brandon Myers, Bear Pascoe
KR David Wilson
K Josh Brown
P Steve Weatherford

Analysis: Should be good. Wilson and Brown are both primed to have big seasons, if they avoid putting the ball on the ground Eli will move the ball with ease. My pick to win what will be a tough East.

Prediction: 11-5, last game against Washington will be very meaningful, a loss in the NFC championship game will prevent an all too familiar Super Bowl, and probably prevent Coughlin's retirement

Philadelphia Eagles
Key Losses: CB Nnamdi Asomugha, CB Dominique Rogers-Cromartie
Key Additions: CB Cary Williams, FB/TE James Casey, QB Matt Barkley

Offense:
QB Michael Vick, Nick Foles, Matt Barkley
RB LeSean McCoy, Bryce Brown
WR DeSean Jackson, Arrelious Benn, Jason Avant, Jeremy Maclin
TE Brent Celek
KR Brandon Boykin
K Alex Henery
P Donnie Jones

Analysis: With all the press and excitement around Eagles camp you'd think they signed some huge-name free agent or overhauled half their roster...nope, same group that went 4-12 last year, missing key cog Jeremy Maclin no less. However, maybe wonderboy Chip Kelly will unlock Michael Vick and actually utilize LeSean McCoy to his full potential. If so, this could be a scary good team, but likely they will still be extremely mistake prone and lose interest midway through a mind-numbingly bad season

Prediction: 4-12 again, Vick gone, D Jackson gone, Kelly begins building his own team around next year's first round pick.

Washington Redskins
Key Losses: TE Chris Cooley
Key Additions: CB EJ Biggers

Offense:
QB Robert Grffin III, Kirk Cousins, Rex Grossman
RB Alfred Morris, Evan Royster, Roy Helu
WR Josh Morgan, Pierre Garcon, Santana Moss, Leonard Hanerkson, Donte' Stallworth
TE Fred Davis, Logan Paulsen
KR Niles Paul
K Kai Forbath
P Sav Rocca

Analysis: I ripped on the 8-8 team for not changing, but the 12-4 team? They did it right. If RG3 is healthy, and by week 3 he should be, knowing Shanahan, Griffin will play all 4 quarters of every preseason game, because "he looks fine." In any case, this will be an awesome team to watch and should challenge the Giants and grab a WC.

Prediction: 11-5, that loss to the Giants week 16 will cost them the division but they'll win a playoff game before getting bounced. Major success all around.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals
Key Losses: S Adrian Wilson, QB Kevin Kolb, RB Beanie Wells
Key Additions: RB Rashard Mendenhall, DE John Abraham, QB Carson Palmer

Offense:
QB Carson Palmer, Drew Stanton
RB Rashard Mendenhall, Ryan Williams
WR Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Roberts, Micheal Floyd
TE Jeff King
KR Patrick Patterson
K Jay Feely
P Dave Zastudil

Analysis: Adrian Wilson will be a huge loss, the offense will be better but the defense will be hard pressed to repeat last year's effort, especially against the revamped, extremely dangerous other Western teams. I don't understand why Beanie Wells did't get resigned, the man is a beast (and why he hasn't signed anywhere else yet?) Even with a massive upgrade at QB, a possible upgrade at RB (though I don't buy it) and a big name FA in John Abraham, the Cardinals just don't have what it takes to challenge the big boys in the NFC.

Prediction: 6-10, Bruce Arians will have to preach baby steps to keep key free agents from walking after a difficult season

San Francisco 49ers
Key Losses: S Dashon Goldson, QB Alex Smith, WR Ted Ginn Jr, WR Randy Moss
Key Additions: DE Glenn Dorsey, CB/S Nnamdi Asomugha, WR Anquan Boldin

Offense:
QB Colin Kaepernick, Colt McCoy
RB Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter, LaMicheal James
WR Anquan Boldin, Mario Manningham, AJ Jenkings, Kyle Williams, Michael Crabtree
TE Vernon Davis
KR LaMichael James
K Phil Dawson
P Andy Lee

Analysis: Even with the addition of Super Bowl hero Anquan Boldin, the 49ers will be shallow at WR, the departures of Ted Ginn and Randy Moss and the injury to Michael Crabtree make 2nd year player AJ Jenkins a huge cog in what should be a dynamic offense. I don't think Asomugha can replace Goldson, but that D is still the scariest in the league. Their schedule is absolutely brutal with 7 games against last year's playoff teams and a game in New Orleans. 

Prediction: 10-6, Kaepernick and Jack will them to the playoffs only to be upset in the WC round

St Louis Rams
Key Losses: WR Danny Amendola, RB Steven Jackson, 
Key Additions: T Jake Long, TE Jared Cook, WR Tavon Austin

Offense:
QB Sam Bradford
RB Daryl Richardson, Isaiah Pead
WR Tavon Austin, Chris Givens, Brian Quick, Austin Pettis
TE Jared Cook
KR Chris Givens
K Greg Zuerlein
P Johnny Hekker

Analysis: These poor guys try so hard. They've built a very solid, balanced club, that would compete nicely in the FBS. The Bradford-Tebow-McCoy QB class has really been a bummer. They might win some games because Fisher is a great coach and they have a really tough D line, but more than 5 wins will be virtually unattainable.

Prediction: 4-12, Possibly time to draft another QB

Seattle Seahawks
Key Losses: RB Leon Washington
Key Additions: WR Percy Harvin, DE Cliff Avril, DE Michael Bennett

Offense:
QB Russell Wilson, Brady Quinn
RB Marshawn Lynch, Ryan Turbin
WR Percy Harvin, Sidney Rice, David Bladwin, Golden Tate
TE Zach Miller
KR Golden Tate
K Steven Hauschka
P Jon Ryan

Analysis: This is going to be fun to watch. How did one of the best defenses in the league lose nothing and gain Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett? And one of the most potent offenses lose nothing (Washington was a very small part) and gain Percy Harvin? They got way better, which is scary cuz they were really good. (Added after news of Harvin's surgery broke) Not changing my prediction per se, will still be good, how good they look early will be a harbinger of the dominance Percy will facilitate upon his insertion into the lineup, being predicted to be December.

Prediction: 12-4, Playoff success

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons
Key Losses: RB Michael Turner, DE John Abraham, 
Key Additions: DE Osi Umenyiora, RB Steven Jackson

Offense:
QB Matt Ryan
RB Steven Jackson, Jacquizz Rogers
WR Roddy White, Julio Jones, Harry Douglas
TE Tony Gonzalez
KR Jacquizz Rogers
K Matt Bryant
P Matt Bosher

Analysis: This team should've won a Super Bowl already, something just won't click in for Matty Ice. I don't think Steven Jackson is the answer, he's a beast, they'll be real good, but not good enough, the NFC is too tough and they'll miss the playoffs for the first time in Ryan's career.

Prediction: 8-8, Mike Smith is fired, Gonzalez retires week 10 and the wheels begin to fall off

Carolina Panthers
Key Losses: 
Key Additions: WR Ted Ginn Jr, WR Domenik Hixon

Offense:
QB Cam Newton, Derek Anderson
RB DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Mike Tolbert
WR Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell, Ted Ginn, Domenik Hixon
TE Greg Olsen
KR Ted Ginn
K Graham Gano
P Brad Northman

Analysis: Little or no activity of any value here. Newton is special, if DeAngelo and Stewart get healthy the skill positions on this team rival any in the league. But this should be the last year those names are on the same depth chart. 

Prediction: 4-12, Williams and Stewart are traded, Steve Smith retires

New Orleans Saints
Key Losses: RB Chris Ivory
Key Additions: TE Ben Watson

Offense:
QB Drew Brees, Luke McCown
RB Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram
WR Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Courtney Roby, Joe Morgan
TE Jimmy Graham, Ben Watson
KR Darren Sproles
K Garrett Hartley
P Thomas Morstead

Analysis: This team was weak last year, they added virtually nothing and lost in Ivory a solid back. However, they will be back. Drew Brees is just too good, these guys will compete and cause some serious issues for the Falcons' plans to get back to the playoffs. NFL Coaches are always the reason things go wrong and never the reason they go right, EXCEPT SEAN PAYTON. Not sure why, it just is.

Prediction: 12-4, two 4 game winning streaks and a reinvigorated Brees, the Saints "Breeze" through the regular season just to hit a buzz saw in the first round.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Key Losses: DE Michael Bennett,
Key Additions: RB Peyton Hillis, S Dashon Goldson

Offense:
QB Josh Freeman
RB Doug Martin, Mike James, Peyton Hillis
WR Mike Williams, Vincent Jackson, Kevin Ogeltree, Tiquan Underwood
TE Tom Crabtree, Luke Stocker, Zach Miller
KR Tiquan Underwood
K Lawrence Tynes
P Michael Koenen

Analysis: Interesting team, but Josh Freeman keeps "taking the next step" only to have a streak of multi-interception games to end seasons. Its possible they'll string together something and threaten the Saints, but very unlikely.

Prediction: 9-7, hope will linger and Tampa will hang on to this cast of characters one more year.

NFC North

Chicago Bears
Key Losses: DE Israel Idonije,
Key Additions: TE Martellus Bennett

Offense:
QB Jay Cutler, Josh McCown
RB Matt Forte, Michael Bush
WR Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffrey, Earl Bennett, Eric Weems
TE Martellus Bennett
KR Dustin Hester
K Robbie Gould
P Adam Podlesh

Analysis: Nope, the D is good, really good and Cutler will have a couple games where he looks like he's Dan Freakin Marino, but then most of the time he's really bad. Nothing has changed to increase their chances of winning, so I don't see how they do much better.

Prediction: 7-9, talk of Cutler moving on and Dustin Hester's retirement add intrigue to an otherwise lackluster season for da Bears

Detroit Lions
Key Losses: DE Cliff Avril, DE Lawrence Jackson,
Key Additions: RB Reggie Bush, DE Israel Idonije, K David Akers

Offense:
QB Matt Stafford, Shaun Hill
RB Reggie Bush, Mikel Leshoure, Joique Bell
WR Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson, Mike Thomas, Chaz Schilens
TE Brandon Pettigrew
KR Mike Thomas
K David Akers
P Sam Martin

Analysis: These guys could make some noise, but I highly doubt it. Stafford will inevitably get hurt, the defense will inevitably make mistakes. The Lions will be fun to watch, but I don't see Reggie Bush coming in and changing the culture.

Prediction: 4-12, Schwatz gone, can a new head coach turn things around?

Green Bay Packers
Key Losses: WR Donald Driver, WR Greg Jennings, CB Charles Woodson, TE Tom Crabtree
Key Additions: RB Eddie Lacy, RB Jonathan Franklin

Offense:
QB Aaron Rodgers
RB Eddie Lacy, Jonathan Franklin, DuJuan Harris
WR Jordy Nelson, James Jones, Randall Cobb, Jeremy Ross
TE Jermichael Finley
KR Randall Cobb
K Mason Crosby
P Tim Masthay

Analysis: Obviously the preseason favorites, and any team with Aaron Rodgers and only losing two pieces of one of the best offenses over the past 3 seasons. However, I don't think Lacy is ready, and Jordy Nelson had a really rough year last year. Can James Jones and Randall Cobb be what Jennings/Nelson were the last 2 seasons? No. I don't think so. Rodgers will win games on his own, but not enough, not this year.

Prediction:

Minnesota Vikings
Key Losses: WR Percy Harvin
Key Additions: WR Greg Jennings, DE Lawrence Jackson, QB Matt Cassel

Offense:
QB Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel
RB Adrian Peterson, Toby Gerhart
WR Greg Jennings, Cordarrelle Patterson, Jerome Simpson, Jarius Wright
TE Kyle Rudolph, John Carlson
KR Marcus Sherels
K Blair Walsh
P Jeff Locke

Analysis: HOMER ALERT HOMER ALERT, however, in the NFL anything can happen. Adrian Peterson is the indisputably best RB in the league, and arguably the best player. If Christian Ponder is any better, a 10 win team can win 12. Add in an improved defense and some weapons to make Ponder's improvement more plausible, this isn't as laughable as you probably think. If you're responding with "How can Ponder be better without Harvin?" Remember, the Vikes made their stretch run, including Ponder's best 2 games, without Harvin, and Corderrelle Patterson is probably the closest thing the team could've gotten. True story.

Prediction: 11-5. Peterson runs for 2000 again, Ponder is above-average (I described it as Dalton-level earlier today to someone) and the Vikings pull off a miracle in round one of the playoffs.

NFC Playoffs

Seahawks Bye
Giants Bye

Redskins over Saints
Vikings over 49ers

Seahawks over Vikings
Giants over Redskins

Seahawks over Giants

This leaves the Patriots against the Seahawks. If you know me, you'd expect me to pick Brady but the Seahawks defense is just way way way too good. Add in a fresh Harvin and these Hawks are fo' real.


Seahawks over Patriots 30-20 "...you mad bro?"




So that's a really long one. Just found out this afternoon that I'm on light duty and off for a week, however still planning on posting Sunday's SS lesson tomorrow.

Braves on a 5 game winning streak, have scored 9 or more runs 3 games in a row, stand 10 games up in the NL East, and added a great lefty reliever in Scott Downs. Things are looking very up.

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